Some analysts believe that even if the Chinese economy is not significantly affected by the Sino-U.S. Trade war in 2019, the problem of China’s aging population will put downward pressure on the economy, and China has now “become old before becoming rich.” According to the January 20 local time article of the Japanese media “Nihon Keizai Shimbun”, according to Chinese official data released on January 17, China ’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in 2019 was 6.1%, a decrease from 2018. 0.5 percentage point, although this is mainly related to the US trade war. However, the weakening of personal consumption due to the decline of the working-age population cannot be ignored. In addition, considering that China’s demographic dividend generation will begin to retire in 2022, it is expected that the downward pressure on China’s economy will become more apparent in the future.
According to the article, although the Chinese economy has reached the goal of exceeding 10,000 US dollars per capita GDP in 2019, since 2012, China’s economic growth rate has begun to decline, and the current background of the Chinese economy is the sluggish domestic demand. Data show that consumption in 2019 The contribution rate to economic growth is 3.5%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from 2019 and the lowest level in nearly 30 years. While external demand has become a supportive factor for China’s economic growth, its contribution rate has increased from -0.6% in 2018 to 2019 0.7% of the year. According to China’s population data, the affect by the deepening of the one-child policy in the 1990s, the number of young people between the ages of 18 and 30 in China has decreased by 30 million in the past three years, which has led to a reduction in consumption to some extent because of the Consumption willingness is relatively strong.
In addition, the number of Chinese births in 2019 was 14.65 million, a decrease of 580,000 from 2018. If we consider factors such as “the low special birth rate that reflects the total number of children born in a woman ’s life” and “the number of women of childbearing age will decrease further in the future”, it is expected that the number of births in the Chinese population will continue to decrease in the future, which means that the Chinese economy has enjoyed The “demographic dividend effect” has now reversed. The problem is that at the same time that the working-age population began to decrease, China as a whole was not getting rich. The so-called “for the rich to show old age” situation has emerged. This is very different from the situation when Japan’s working-age population peaked in 1993. Because Japan’s per capita GDP at that time was 1.5 times that of the United States, and China’s per capita GDP in 2013 was less than one-seventh that of the United States. (Note: The article indicates that the total GDP of Japan at that time was affected by the appreciation of the yen)